Published research this week points to at least one more ECB rate hike ahead — the real debate is July versus September.
The consensus view among analysts is a 25bp hike to a 2.50% deposit rate, with September the base case. Researchers point to the hawkish tone of the June meeting account, the collapse of the US-Iran deal, renewed energy price pressures, and sticky underlying inflation likely to show up in the next round of staff projections.
A parallel thread of recent research agrees the macro backdrop looks a lot like the run-up to the last hike, but argues the 23 July meeting is a live possibility for an "insurance hike" rather than waiting until autumn.
Worth noting: this is a disagreement about timing, not direction. Both camps see further ECB tightening from here — they just differ on whether the move lands in July or September.
No distinct calls on Bunds, BTPs, or OATs came through in today's research flow.