European government bonds face sustained downward pressure as published research converges on a hawkish ECB turn ahead.
The consensus across recently-published analyses is that energy-driven inflation has pushed ECB policymakers — including Philip Lane and Isabel Schnabel — toward signalling a 25bp hike at the June 11 meeting, with researchers projecting a follow-up in July that would lift the deposit rate to 2.50%. One published view notes markets are already pricing a third hike as far out as 2027, keeping longer-dated yields elevated. Separate analysis ties rising Bund yields to higher term premiums from fiscal stress, while another macro note flags German inflation accelerating from 2.0% in March to 2.9% in April, narrowing room for easing.
On the curve, some analysts argue German 2Y yields near 2.55% look too low if the ECB delivers on June and September. At the long end, researchers see 10Y Bunds pushed higher by hike pricing.
One contrarian thread frames near-term hikes giving way to gradual cuts back to 2.00% by early 2027 as inflation fades — a horizon split, not a contradiction.