Published research is leaning bearish on European government bonds: the consensus in this week's analysis is that Eurozone sovereigns sell off as the ECB keeps tightening, with yields rising and bond prices falling through 2026.
The core call from recent research: three 25bp ECB hikes ahead, with inflation peaking just under 4% this autumn and only easing gradually — not back to target until after 2026. That higher-for-longer rate path is what analysts argue will keep pressure on yields across the bloc.
Mortgage markets are already feeling it, which adds to the economic drag even as the ECB feels compelled to keep going. A separate strand of rates research lines up with this view, noting markets are now pricing three hikes by year-end, with the first expected at the June meeting.
One caveat from the published work: today's views are broad Eurozone in scope. No differentiated calls on Bunds, BTPs or OATs — the ECB path is the dominant driver flagged, and country-level spread dynamics aren't addressed in this round of coverage.