Euro bond research is split right down the middle on direction — and it's a genuine disagreement, not a horizon mismatch.
The bullish camp argues German 2-year yields will fall as inflation cools and the ECB shifts to a less hawkish tone, lifting front-end Bund prices. A separate strand recommends EUR government bonds for yield and diversification, viewing tightening fears as overstated.
The bearish camp pushes back hard. Some recently published work notes eurozone manufacturing input prices have jumped more sharply than in the US after geopolitical shocks, pressuring yields higher. Another thread expects the ECB to hike 50bp to roughly 2.65% by year-end — a clear headwind for nominal bond prices. Even if Middle East tensions ease, one view holds front-end rates will drift down only slowly, since ECB communication is likely to stay cautious.
Where researchers do agree: inflation-linked paper looks attractive. The published case points to ~1% real yields, volatile inflation, and break-evens that underprice structural risks.