Hawkish central banks and expensive oil are colliding with an AI-driven tech sell-off, and published research sees the US midterms as the next big swing event.
The clearest cross-asset consensus in recent research is more tightening ahead. Analysts broadly expect the Bank of England to hike to 4.00% this week, the Fed to move again in December, and the RBA to lift rates to 4.85%. Several research notes also flag upside risk to oil if the Middle East conflict escalates — a path that would reinforce hawkish rate expectations and pressure Asian currencies. On gold, the published view splits: tactically weak in the near term, but a camp of analysts keeps a structurally bullish long-term case.
US equities are where researchers disagree most. One group argues a divided Congress post-midterms is bullish; others expect near-term weakness, and some see a Democratic sweep as a headwind. Oil forecasts similarly fork on geopolitics — lower on an Iran deal, higher on escalation.
More contrarian published views include a currency-debasement thesis pointing to $15,000–20,000 gold in a reset scenario, and a call for EUR/USD to drift toward 1.20 by end-2027.