Published research this week paints an inflationary, energy-led risk-off picture across markets: Brent above $110, yields drifting higher, AI and tech names under pressure, and French sovereign stress spilling into the euro while central banks stay in tightening mode.
Analysts broadly agree oil has further upside, pointing to Middle East escalation and attacks on Saudi infrastructure. A wide consensus flags French fiscal stress, with the France-Germany 10-year spread expected to widen. Hawkish central bank calls are stacking up too — researchers see another RBNZ hike, additional Fed moves, and an ECB hike in December. Several notes turn bearish on gold and silver near term.
Where views diverge: one camp argues gold is tactically weak but structurally strong longer-term. Treasury yield calls split by scenario — most see higher yields, a contrarian thread argues yields fall if AI weakness persists. EUR/USD is bearish short-term in most notes, bullish in at least one 3-to-12-month view.
One outlier keeps an 8,000 S&P 500 target against more cautious peers; another warns of a Q4 2018-style slide into year-end before a Q1 rebound.