Energy shock meets hawkish central banks: the published research consensus points to higher oil, higher yields, and a firmer dollar.
Across recently published views, Brent near $110 on Strait of Hormuz risk is the dominant theme, with multiple research desks tying the move to Iran-related geopolitics. One camp of analysts expects the Fed to hike further from here, while a smaller group sees cuts only arriving by late 2027. On Europe, researchers broadly argue the France-Germany 10-year spread widens from here, with French sovereign stress also dragging EUR/USD lower. A contrarian thread sees that spread tightening from already-stretched levels.
Where the debate narrows: some recently published work expects an oil pullback, but mostly on short-term technical grounds rather than a change in the bullish story. On the dollar, most views lean higher near-term, though a minority argues long-run debasement wins out. Semiconductors split too — mostly constructive, with one cautious voice framing AI capex as misallocation.
One outlier call worth flagging: a strategic view that the US 10-year yield could reach 6–8%, alongside another leg higher in gold.