Higher-for-longer rates and an oil shock are the story across every asset class right now, according to this week's published research.
The dominant thread from third-party analysts: Middle East conflict is pushing Brent near $109, which is feeding inflation, forcing central banks to stay tight, and driving US 10-year yields past 5.25% — a 19-year high. Researchers argue this loop is the transmission mechanism dragging on risk assets, lifting the dollar, and squeezing emerging market currencies.
The published consensus expects yields to keep grinding higher, with several analysts calling for another RBA hike and New Zealand's cash rate heading toward 3.5% by early 2027. On oil, the view is near-unanimous: elevated or rising while Strait of Hormuz risk persists.
But there's a real split on Treasuries. A contrarian thread suggests yields are near peak and long-duration bonds are a buy — with one notable argument framing the yield spike as a mechanical result of passive index flows rather than fundamentals. Gold views also diverge: near-term weakness from real rates, but some strategic calls target $5,000–$7,000 longer term.