The week's dominant thread: a global bond-yield squeeze is reshaping the outlook across every asset class.
Multiple research desks flagged the US 10-year near 5% and the 30-year at a 19-year high, with the drivers described as structural — persistent deficits, heavy issuance, and cost-push inflation from oil above $100. One contrarian view called long yields overshot versus fundamentals and framed Treasuries as a generational entry point; most others argued supply and sticky inflation keep the long end pinned higher, with intermediate duration the preferred hiding spot.
Equities split the room. Bullish analysis leaned on AI capex, resilient earnings, and a raised year-end S&P target near 7,900. Bearish work drew parallels to 1973 and 2022, when hikes into a supply shock ended badly.
Real assets, copper, steel, aluminum and gold were flagged as beneficiaries of the AI grid buildout and inflation hedging. On FX, views on USD/JPY diverged after a split BOJ hike. Soybeans caught a bid on hopes for a Trump-Xi deal.