Hawkish Jackson Hole flipped the script: markets are now pricing a Fed hike, not a cut.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech — flagging that inflation isn't beaten and that financial conditions aren't yet restrictive — pushed rate-hike odds for the next FOMC toward 60%, according to published research this week. The 2Y Treasury yield jumped sharply on the repricing, the 10Y sits near the top of a 4–5% "old normal" range, and UK 10Y Gilts pushed above 5.15% as the same shift-from-cuts-to-hikes theme played out globally. Several analysts argued structural forces — deficits, term premia, a shrinking central-bank bid — will keep long yields elevated regardless of intervention.
The dollar rallied broadly, with USD/JPY back above 160 despite Japanese intervention. Gold and Bitcoin sold off on the higher-rates read; one note also flagged corporate Bitcoin treasury market cap collapsing from $150B to $67B year-on-year.
Equity bulls aren't flinching: Nvidia's 106% revenue growth and the AI capex cycle are still framed as the tailwind carrying the S&P and global stocks.