Long-end government bond yields are the story across markets today, and the published research consensus is that they're going higher.
Researchers broadly agree that US, European, Japanese, and UK long-dated yields are pushing to multi-year or multi-decade highs, driven by fiscal deterioration, heavy debt issuance, geopolitical risk, and the capital demands of the AI buildout. Rising yields are now the main transmission channel — squeezing rate-sensitive equity valuations, supporting the dollar, and keeping oil and gold bid.
The consensus extends to commodities. Multiple research desks flag Brent upside as Strait of Hormuz supply risk intensifies, though a contrarian thread sees oil lower on a 2026–2027 horizon as sanctions cap escalation and Chinese demand softens. Gold enjoys near-unanimous support from safe-haven flows and central bank buying.
Disagreements are sharper in equities and FX. One camp argues the S&P 500 rally has further to run on capex and liquidity; others warn valuations now exceed dot-com peaks. On EUR/USD, some see 1.17–1.18 by year-end, while others call the euro 2.5–3% overvalued.
One notable tail-risk view: an oil "super-spike" to $150–200 if inventories take another hit.