Markets are running a soft-landing, risk-on trade after cooler US inflation data — but the bond market is split in two, and that's the sharpest tension across assets right now.
The published research consensus is constructive on global equities, with strong Q2 earnings, AI-driven capex, and softer CPI and PPI prints reducing the odds of further Fed tightening. Researchers broadly argue gold has further upside, citing central bank buying, fiscal debasement, and geopolitical risk. Copper draws similar bullish attribution on electrification and AI infrastructure demand.
The split sits in Treasuries. One camp of analysts sees 10-year yields drifting lower near-term on benign data and a Fed on hold. A larger cyclical-to-strategic camp argues yields are biased higher, pointing to deficits above 6% of GDP, heavy issuance, and rising term premium.
A contrarian thread of recent research pushes back on the Magnificent Seven, flagging deteriorating free cash flow and widening credit spreads as early warnings. And one notably bold published view targets S&P 500 at 10,000 and gold at $9,000 longer term.