Across markets today, published research is converging on one theme: reflationary risk-on with a weaker dollar. Real assets and risk assets are moving together as fiscal expansion, sticky inflation, and Middle East supply shocks reinforce each other.
Where the research consensus is deepest:
Gold is the standout long, with multiple independent research shops aligned across tactical and secular horizons. Oil draws similar agreement, with several analysts citing a Strait of Hormuz risk premium keeping Brent and WTI elevated. On US long-end Treasuries, an unusually wide slate of researchers expects yields to grind higher, with published fair-value estimates ranging from roughly 4.75–5% up to an outlier 5.8% — a strong structural call against duration. Chinese equities also attract constructive multi-horizon views, anchored on policy support and AI-related demand.
Where researchers disagree:
USD/JPY splits sharply — one camp sees near-term upside from carry and rate differentials, while a contrarian thread argues intervention and policy normalization drag the pair lower into 2026. Bitcoin views diverge by horizon: strategic bulls versus a near-term pullback call toward 58,000. And on AI mega-caps, some recently published views warn of circular financing risk, while others frame AI infrastructure as a multi-year structural winner.