Today's cross-asset story: a hawkish rates backdrop is colliding with an unwind in AI and semiconductor names, and the combination is pressuring growth assets globally while keeping the dollar firm and sovereign yields elevated.
Multiple strands of published research now expect the Fed to hike further, with market pricing already pointing to more than two additional moves. That consensus is feeding through to FX, where analysts broadly see the dollar staying bid into the FOMC, and one recurring view highlights Swiss franc strength as the SNB is expected to sit on its hands for years — making CHF a preferred funding currency.
Where researchers split: oil. One camp argues Middle East supply risk keeps Brent bid; another tactical thread points to easing US-Iran tensions and technicals as reasons the risk premium fades near-term. Treasuries are similarly contested — most published views expect long yields to stay high, but a contrarian scenario argues a July hike would actually pull the 10Y and 30Y lower on growth fears, flattening the curve in a way duration bears may not be positioned for.
On equities, the research consensus warns the chip unwind isn't technically oversold yet. Gold views are mixed; copper calls skew bullish on physical tightness and energy-transition demand.