Today's dominant cross-asset signal: a geopolitics-driven inflation shock is radiating out from US-Iran escalation, and energy has become the master variable pushing yields higher, pressuring risk assets, and fracturing the usual gold/dollar link.
Where the published research consensus is tightest: crude. A broad range of analysts flag near-term upside for Brent and WTI on Strait of Hormuz risk, with some adding Russia's diesel export ban as a compounding driver for refined products. Researchers also broadly agree US 10-year Treasury yields and German Bund yields are heading higher as geopolitics repricies the global rate path. Semiconductors — Micron in particular — draw repeated bullish mentions.
Where views split: Brent's path hinges on whether Iran hostilities de-escalate (one camp sees $74–80 into 2026) or resume (a risk case near $100). The dollar is contested at the same horizon — some argue energy-driven hawkish repricing supports it, others expect weakness if the Fed ultimately doesn't hike. Gold shows a genuine disagreement, with a structural bull case on central bank demand running against a tactical bearish case tied to higher real yields.
One less-consensus pairing worth noting: a contrarian thread flags USD/JPY upside alongside widening French OAT-Bund spreads as twin political-economy risks.