Today's cross-asset signal is a risk-on/yields-higher split: equities keep grinding up on AI capex and earnings, while government bond yields stay pressured by heavy supply, sticky inflation, and a more hawkish Fed. The published research consensus is that the AI spending boom is providing a growth floor for stocks even as rates drift up — though the tech rotation sparked by Samsung's earnings is adding near-term turbulence.
Where researchers broadly agree: gold has further upside across both strategic and cyclical horizons, driven by persistent US fiscal deficits. Global and US equities remain constructive into H2 2026, with AI capex as the shared anchor. Multiple analyst camps expect US 10Y Treasury yields higher on supply, inflation, and Fed posture.
Where they split: oil. One camp sees Brent structurally lower as supply normalizes into 2027; another flags event-driven upside from Middle East risk. A contrarian thread on Treasuries argues yields will gradually decline as disinflation dominates and markets are overpricing the neutral rate — and a small out-of-consensus view even calls for 75bps of Fed hikes by end-2026.