The week's headline: cracks appeared in the semiconductor momentum trade while the dollar lost its grip, and gold quietly rebuilt its bull case.
Early in the week, research framed chips as the leading momentum theme worth leaning into, even as crowding stoked volatility. By the second half, the published consensus shifted notably more cautious — multiple notes flagged the AI/semi trade as stretched, capital-intensive, and vulnerable to an overbuild reminiscent of past tech capex cycles, with one weekly index drop near 8% cited as a warning shot. A rotation back to mega-cap quality was floated as the next leg.
On rates and FX, softer US consumer data, downward GDP revisions, and dovish Williams remarks were read as pulling the dollar off its highs, with tactical calls for EUR/USD strength and 10Y yields drifting lower near-term. Longer-term, several pieces argued deficits keep yields structurally elevated.
Gold drew renewed bullish attention as a dollar-weakness and geopolitical hedge, with one outlook eyeing $2,400 in coming weeks.