Today's split tape: a US-Iran deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are pulling the war premium out of oil, while a more hawkish Fed under new Chair Kevin Warsh is repricing US rates higher. The result, according to the published research flow: oil down, front-end yields up, dollar firmer, and equity leadership narrowing hard to tech.
Researchers are broadly aligned that Brent and WTI head lower from here, though they differ on how far and how fast. A wide cross-section of analysts also flag the US 2-year yield rising on the hawkish dot-plot shift. On gold, the consensus published view stays structurally bullish on central bank demand, even as some recent notes see short-term headwinds post-FOMC. Silver draws similar tactical optimism.
The genuine dispute is the US 10-year: one camp argues yields keep climbing on term premium and Fed credibility, while a contrarian thread sees yields peaking as inflation fades. EUR/USD splits by horizon — near-term pressure under 1.15, with a strategic call for 1.20 by year-end.
One notably contrarian view: that the oil selloff is a structural buying opportunity, with $85 as a new floor.