Copper is caught in a tug-of-war between softening demand expectations and still-tight physical supply, according to recently published commodity research.
On the demand side, analysts point to delays in AI-related capex and a reduced probability of fresh tariffs — both of which weaken the forward demand story. But researchers argue the near-term supply picture hasn't actually loosened: Chilean output remains weak, Chinese import premiums are elevated, and physical spreads are tight.
The published view is that neither force has decisively tipped the balance. One camp frames the resolution as hinging on two swing factors: whether mine and project delays persist, and whether US inventories get released into the market. Until those shift, the research consensus avoids calling a direction, and no specific timeframe is offered.
In plain terms: the paper market is cooling on copper's future, while the physical market is still signaling scarcity today. Which side blinks first is the open question.
By the numbers:
• Positioning (CFTC, as of 3 Nov 2026): Copper: speculators (managed money) are net long, 10.6% of open interest. That is the smallest net long in a year (COT index 0 of 100). The net position fell by 5,685 contracts on the week.
• Priced in gold (7 Nov 2026): Copper $6.35/lb, 641 lb of copper per oz of gold: cheaper than on 4% of days over 2 years, 76% over 10. Common 2-year range at today's gold: $5.30–$5.54/lb.
Charts: finchiefs.com/data/metals