Copper is caught between two credible research camps right now — and the disagreement is more about timeframe than direction.
On the cautious side, one thread of recent analysis flags that speculative positioning sits at 100th-percentile extremes while price has failed to break out for three to four months. Copper is now at a one-month low near key support, and researchers warn that a break below 640 could trigger a washout in crowded long positions.
A more constructive camp of published research argues the broader uptrend is still intact, even if the pace cools. Their case: large US stockpiles built on tariff fears could flow back to global markets as tariff risk fades, helping a tight ex-US market. Chinese refiners — around half of global refined capacity — are reportedly cutting output as margins get squeezed, which could tighten supply further. Near-term risk, they note, is a tech-led equity wobble dragging metals lower.
The views are partly reconcilable: a near-term flush could be exactly the dip longer-horizon buyers are waiting for.