Copper's week split cleanly: near-term wobble, long-term bull case intact.
Early in the week, research leaned cautious. Analysts flagged that net long positioning had hit a five-year high just as US tariff noise triggered a correction, with speculative liquidation accelerating the pullback. Concerns about White House tariffs on Chinese EVs, calls from tech executives to slow AI development, and rising exchange inventories added to the near-term downside case. One medium-term view sees prices normalizing toward roughly $12,750/t by end-2028 as tariff effects fade, China's property drag persists, and new mine supply trickles in.
The structural bull case dominated the back half of the week. Multiple threads argued copper demand is set to rise on electrification, grid expansion, and AI/data center buildout, while new mines take 8–9 years to develop and consultant supply estimates run optimistic. Supply disruptions in Chile, Peru, and the DRC, plus sulfuric acid shortages, reinforce tightness. Q4 2026 LME prices were forecast around $14,810/t. China's ongoing strategic stockpiling and copper's role as a hard-asset hedge round out the long-term thesis.