Copper's story right now is a tale of two horizons: bullish into late 2026, then softer as the cycle turns.
Research published this week argues LME copper could average around $14,810/t in Q4 2026. The bull case rests on the global electrification buildout, AI and data-centre capex, weather-driven disruptions at Chilean mines, and strategic stockpiling ahead of potential US Section 232 tariff decisions.
Looking further out, the same analysis sees prices easing to roughly $12,750/t by end-2028. The logic: tariff uncertainty resolves, China's property sector stays structurally weak, and new mine supply gradually catches up with demand.
Analysts frame this less as a disagreement and more as a horizon split — cyclical strength giving way to normalization, with electrification and manufacturing reshoring providing a longer-term floor rather than a launchpad.
The takeaway from the published research consensus: near-term tightness is real, but investors should not extrapolate 2026 dynamics into the back half of the decade.