Copper's structural bull case dominated the week, but tariff-driven froth started to leak out late.
Early in the window, the published research overwhelmingly pointed higher. Analysts flagged AI data center buildouts, grid electrification, and EV demand colliding with a supply base starved of new discoveries — mine development timelines of 5–18 years, declining ore grades, and output down roughly 1% year-on-year at majors like Codelco and Freeport. A sulfuric acid shortage tied to Qatari LNG issues, fresh disruptions in Congo and South America, and El Niño flooding risk in Chile were cited as compounding tightness. Prices hit fresh records in London, with refined metal being pulled into the US ahead of potential Trump tariffs.
By late week, the consensus softened tactically: multiple researchers noted the White House had not committed to refined copper tariffs, unwinding the "tariff premium," while others warned of stretched managed-money longs, high exchange inventories, and an uncomfortable correlation with equities. The structural thesis stayed intact; the near-term setup looked more fragile.