Copper's bull case dominated research this week, with structural deficits and AI-driven demand cited as durable tailwinds.
Multiple research desks reiterated a constructive medium-term stance, pointing to persistent tightness in physical supply, low inventories, elevated Chinese import premiums, and uncertainty around potential US copper tariffs as reasons prices should stay supported. Several notes emphasized structural drivers that analysts argue are only intensifying: electrification, grid upgrades, EV demand, and the AI data center buildout, set against a lack of new Tier 1 discoveries and declining output from majors including BHP, Rio Tinto, and Codelco. One long-horizon view floated a path toward $8/lb, framing copper as a multi-year "set and forget" allocation given lengthy project timelines and no viable substitutes.
The main tactical counterpoint came from a thread flagging commercials as extremely short and price sitting on the 50-day moving average — a setup that has historically preceded pullbacks toward the 100- and 200-day averages, framed as a higher-risk short-term trade rather than a challenge to the structural thesis.