Copper's structural bull case dominated research this week, with near-unanimous conviction that the metal sits in a multi-year deficit.
Analysts across the week pointed to the same demand stack: AI data centers, grid upgrades, electrification of transport, and renewable buildout. One forecast cited AI power demand tripling from roughly 4% to 12% of US consumption by 2028, with copper as the physical bottleneck. Another projected global copper demand rising 30–40% by 2040. Research argued supply simply isn't responding — falling ore grades, underinvestment in new mines, and incentive prices now sitting near spot.
Several notes flagged near-term risks worth respecting: copper is trading pennies off all-time highs and tracking AI-linked equity leadership closely, so a tech or growth wobble could trigger a cyclical reset. Separate research warned that an unusually strong El Niño could disrupt mining output — a supply hit, but also a reminder of operational fragility.
The published tone: tactical caution, strategic conviction. Dips are being framed as resets, not reversals.