Copper looks bid on both the tactical and structural side, according to research circulating this week — with a bearish case that only triggers under a specific shock scenario.
On the near-term picture, one strand of analysis flags real physical tightness on the London Metal Exchange: cancelled warrants (metal earmarked to leave warehouses) have jumped to 37% of total inventories, up from just 5% before the recent Middle East conflict, while on-warrant stocks sit at their lowest since late February. Tariff-driven arbitrage flows are adding more support.
A separate structural camp argues today's strength isn't a cyclical blip. Their case: years of underinvestment in new mines, falling ore grades, long lead times to bring projects online, and few major new deposits in stable jurisdictions. Layer on demand from AI data centers, grid build-out, renewables, and emerging-market urbanization, and the published view is that supply deficits deepen over time.
The contrarian thread is narrower than it looks — it sees copper falling only if an oil super-spike tips the world into recession and powers a sharp dollar rally. Different scenario, not a head-on clash.