Copper looks structurally tight, and recent published research argues the market is underpricing how much tariff policy could squeeze it.
Researchers note the U.S. now holds more than half of global visible exchange copper stocks, as importers rush to front-run proposed Section 232 tariffs on refined copper cathode. A decision is expected around June 30, with potential implementation by January 2027. At the same time, analysts point out that China's structural import demand remains strong, creating what one camp describes as a "bimodal" market — copper piling up in the U.S. and China while inventories elsewhere risk draining fast.
The published consensus in this thread of research is that prices have room to run through mid-year and beyond, with LME and COMEX copper as the main expression. The mechanics of the arbitrage and the split in inventories, they argue, set up bouts of sharp upside volatility as the policy deadline approaches.