Bitcoin took center stage this week as researchers debated whether the rally finally extends to crypto.
Several analysts flagged that Bitcoin has been the notable laggard in an otherwise liquid, risk-on tape, with ISM at 54 leaving room for a catch-up move that could arrive violently. One newly published valuation framework combining mean reversion, ETF inflows and adoption pointed to a 12-month target near $100,000, arguing Bitcoin has underperformed traditional macro drivers while capital chased AI equities. Technically-oriented work highlighted a break above the May swing high near $82,000 as evidence the downtrend from last October has reversed, with $90,000 flagged as the next near-term target inside a longer cycle thesis pointing toward the $126,000 prior high by early 2028.
Not everyone agreed. A contrarian macro view grouped crypto with gold and silver as vulnerable to a liquidity-cycle headwind, invoking Q4 2018 as the analog. Others see a bottoming process rather than an imminent bull run, citing IPO supply, AI capex absorption, wider credit spreads and a Fed repriced toward a hike.