Published research now has a formal 12-month price target on Bitcoin: $100,000.
A newly released valuation framework from one research team pulls together three different models — mean reversion, ETF flows, and adoption curves — and all three converge on roughly $100K per coin over the next year. The analysis argues Bitcoin has actually lagged traditional macro drivers since 2024, as capital chased AI equities instead, leaving room for that gap to close.
The flow math researchers cite is striking: spot Bitcoin ETFs are pulling in about $3.4 billion a month, up from roughly $265 million previously, running against a hard supply cap of 21 million coins.
The same research is explicit about what could break the thesis: a broad risk-off turn in markets, tighter regulation, forced selling by leveraged holders, and — further out — quantum computing eventually threatening the cryptography Bitcoin relies on.
Worth noting this is a published research view, not a recommendation. The convergence of three independent models on the same number is what makes it stand out.