Asset view · 1 October 2026

Bitcoin: what research is saying

AI summary of published research · 1 October 2026

Published research this week lines up firmly bullish on Bitcoin, framing it as a structural hedge in a world of fiat debasement and widening institutional adoption.

Researchers argue BTC's rerating from roughly $65K to $85K reflects investor anxiety about currency debasement and unsustainable fiscal paths — positioning Bitcoin alongside gold as hard-money insurance rather than a speculative trade.

A more ambitious strand of recently-published analysis pushes the horizon further, modeling BTC at around $1.3 million by 2035. The reasoning: if Bitcoin captures about a quarter of gold's total market value and compounds at gold's own historical ~13% annual growth rate, the math gets you there. Demographic tailwinds and accelerating institutional flows are cited as supporting drivers.

The published consensus flags one meaningful risk: coordinated regulatory crackdowns across major jurisdictions. Short of that scenario, the research camps don't really disagree — one leans on the macro debasement story, the other anchors to a quantitative gold-parity framework, and both point the same direction.