Bitcoin: published research is leaning firmly bullish, on both a near-term and multi-quarter view.
Two threads are reinforcing each other. On the macro side, several recently published analyses argue the dollar-debasement story is back in focus — driven by US Treasury buybacks, fiscal dominance, and long-run questions about debt sustainability — and that this is pulling fresh flows into Bitcoin as an alternative store of value. One camp of researchers adds that Bitcoin's correlation with gold has risen noticeably when fiscal policy turns aggressive, and points to institutional portfolio allocations drifting from roughly 2% toward 5% as "will it survive" risk fades from the conversation.
On the event side, a separate strand of research flags the September 15 vote on the "Clarity Act" as a discrete near-term catalyst, citing SEC leadership commentary and bipartisan support.
The two views sit on different clocks — one built around a single regulatory date, the other a 6–12 month macro call — but point the same way. The published consensus notes no directional disagreement.