Bitcoin faces a tough finish to the year, according to a bearish view circulating in recently published research.
The argument: BTC has already lost roughly a third of its value year-to-date, and analysts making this call see no obvious catalyst for a reversal before year-end.
The core thesis rests on US Treasury yields. When government bonds pay attractive rates, non-yielding assets like Bitcoin lose relative appeal — investors get paid to wait elsewhere. One camp of researchers stresses that Bitcoin has little historical track record of performing well in a sustained high-yield macro backdrop, which makes the current environment unusually challenging to model.
The published bearish call holds as long as yields stay elevated and broader macro pressure persists. A shift lower in yields, or a meaningful easing of macro conditions, would be the signal to reassess.
Not investment advice.