Bitcoin: no clear consensus among researchers right now, with two bearish takes running up against one contrarian bullish call.
On the bearish side, one strand of published research points to Iranian sovereign selling as a persistent headwind, arguing that BTC weakness lines up with Tehran liquidating reserves to fund war-related spending. A separate analytical camp flags a hard event risk: if the Clarity Act fails to pass by August 7th, expect a sharp leg lower, since regulatory certainty is seen as a prerequisite for stability.
The contrarian view, from another thread of recent research, argues the opposite. Retail interest, media coverage, and conference attendance have all collapsed — and that kind of broad disengagement has historically been a reliable buy signal. This camp stops short of calling for explosive upside, but frames current weakness as an entry point rather than a warning.
The core disagreement isn't about time horizons. It's whether today's softness is a selling catalyst or a setup.