Bitcoin spent the week caught between liquidity bears and debasement bulls, with sentiment tilting cautiously more constructive into the weekend.
Early in the week, bearish research dominated. Multiple analysts flagged tightening global liquidity, a firm dollar, and stress around MicroStrategy/STRC as reasons Bitcoin could grind lower, with downside scenarios ranging from a retest of $37,000 to a deeper cyclical washout toward $30,000–$40,000. A separate strand argued that regulated stablecoins backed by Treasuries have quietly absorbed Bitcoin's medium-of-exchange use case, leaving only a store-of-value narrative that is currently underperforming.
By the second half of the week, the published consensus shifted toward a tactical bounce. Several independent research voices likened positioning to a "beach ball underwater" after forced liquidations, and pointed to persistent US deficits, an eventual Fed pivot, and ongoing institutional adoption as structural tailwinds. Year-end targets above $100,000 reappeared, though most framed this as a recovery trade, not a new highs call.