Bitcoin: most published research leans bearish near-term, but the long-term structural case is still alive for patient holders.
The dominant bearish thesis from recent analyst work is macro-driven. Researchers argue tightening Fed liquidity and weakening global liquidity are the main headwinds, with cycle analysis pointing to a potential drawdown into the $30,000–$50,000 zone before a bottom. A separate camp of analysts reinforces this, citing a strong dollar, no meaningful ETF inflows, and stress around MicroStrategy's STRC product feeding back negatively into Bitcoin itself. Other published views note the weakness is already bleeding into Bitcoin-linked equities.
On the other side, a structural long-term case in recently published research compares Bitcoin's adoption curve to the early internet — but explicitly frames this as a multi-year horizon, not a near-term catalyst. One tactical bullish thread is conditional, triggering only on a breakout above roughly $61,125.
The split is mostly horizon, not direction: cyclical caution for months ahead, structural optimism over years.