Published research on Bitcoin is leaning firmly bearish in the near term, with multiple independent analyses expecting more downside before a durable bottom.
One thread of recent research points to overhang from MicroStrategy's complex debt position and steady selling from long-term holders. A separate cycle-based analysis frames the weakness as technically driven and likely to persist through October. Another camp flags a structural shift on the supply side: miners are selling BTC to fund AI infrastructure, redirecting power and capital toward AI compute where margins are better. On-chain researchers note that net accumulation by long-term holders has more than halved as prices dropped 17% in five days — a sentiment red flag. The most extreme view in circulation calls for a slide toward $10,000, arguing Bitcoin is now tethered to a US equity rally that this view doesn't expect.
The one constructive take is strictly long-horizon: the same author who is tactically bearish into the mid-$50Ks still targets above $100,000 over multiple years on hard-money demand — but only after the near-term overhangs clear.