Assets
- Cross-assetThe week's dominant theme: research is converging on a world of higher-for-longer energy, coordinated December rate hikes, and a late-cycle test for the AI trade.
- GoldGold's week was defined by a $4,000 battle lost — and a sharp debate over whether that break is a buying opportunity or the start of a deeper flush.
- SilverSilver this week: the published consensus turned decisively more cautious, even as long-term bulls doubled down.
- CopperCopper's bullish structural story dominated the week, though late commentary flagged stretched positioning and demand uncertainty into 2027.
- OilOil's weekly story: a geopolitical risk premium is now firmly embedded in the barrel, and the midterms are the next pivot point.
- Natural gasNatural gas told two very different stories this week: Henry Hub stuck in a tight range, European TTF pushing higher on winter deliverability fears.
- BitcoinBitcoin broke $80,000 this week and research sentiment turned decidedly cautious.
- US equitiesUS equities spent the week caught between an AI capex scare and a year-end bull case.
- European equitiesEuropean equities ended the week with a cautiously constructive tilt, as researchers argued the region's earnings story and fiscal supports still outweigh political and rate risks.
- US bondsUS Bonds: a week dominated by refunding mechanics, AI credit stress, and a stubborn tug-of-war over the 10-year.
- EU bondsECB December hike moves to center stage — researchers nearly unanimous that Lagarde's "direction of travel" line locks in a 25bp move.
- EUR/USDEUR/USD spent the week pinned near 1.11–1.12, but published research tilted more constructive by Thursday and Friday after an ECB that leaned hawkish.
Macro
- Macro themesMarkets spent the week wrestling with three overlapping stories: an AI capex reality check, an energy-driven inflation squeeze, and central banks that still want to hike into it.
- Policy makersPolicy makers tilted hawkish across the board this week as an energy shock met sticky core inflation.
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Every morning, what published research argued the day before: the cross-asset and macro read in full, then every market in a line.