What research expects
One vote per research house: its most recent published view on this meeting, from 26 views published between 23 Sep 2026 and 22 Oct 2026. Views about later meetings are not counted.
The debate
Research leans toward a 25bp hike at the 28 October review, taking the OCR from 2.75% to 3.0%. The lean is firm in the most recent notes, written after the Q3 CPI release. Earlier notes were more split, and a block of researchers still expected a pause.
The hike case rests on a much weaker NZ dollar and oil prices above US$110, both more inflationary than the Bank assumed in September. Core inflation near 3% adds to the argument. Several houses say the slightly soft CPI (0.7% q/q, 3.7% y/y) won't change that. One house moved from a pause to a hike after the data.
The hold camp, mostly writing before the CPI, argues the Bank signalled a possible pause in September after two hikes. It sees little sign of inflation expectations moving up, and expects the next hike in December. Others point to a soft labour market and weak household demand. Some warn that moving above neutral risks over-tightening.
The Bank's chief economist, Paul Conway, said the decision was wide open and called the weak NZD worrying. Research read this as hawkish. Markets priced a hike at anywhere from about two-thirds to over 80% in recent weeks. No other policymaker comments appear in the research.
What to watch
- Whether the statement signals further tightening or repeats the gradual, data-dependent language from September.
- The updated OCR track, which one house expects to end at least as high as September's 3.28% and more likely near 3.50%.
- How the Bank describes the weak NZD and higher oil prices in its inflation outlook.
- Any vote split or language on neutral, given disagreement over how far the OCR should go.
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