Central banks are tilting hawkish as the Middle East energy shock pushes inflation higher, according to the latest published research consensus.
Researchers highlight that the ECB held its key rates steady (deposit at 2.50%), but Christine Lagarde confirmed the Governing Council actively debated a hike before holding, stressing no pre-commitment and warning the energy shock will likely lift inflation and dent growth. Euro area inflation hit 3.8% in September, with energy up 18.9%, and 10-year yields have risen roughly 35bp since September.
Analysts note Norway's central bank raised its policy rate 25bp to 2.5% — its first hike since July 2023 — and flagged more may be needed, with CPI seen near 3% into 2027.
Elsewhere, RBA Governor Michele Bullock signaled further subdued demand is required, and RBI Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta said cuts are off the table after the repo move to 5.50%. The Fed held at 4.0% on a 10-2 vote.
A more balanced view comes from Chile, where the central bank held at 4.5%, citing weak demand and 9.5% unemployment.
By the numbers:
• Policy rates: Fed 3.75–4.00%, ECB 2.50%, BoE 3.75%, BoJ 1.25%.
• Next decisions: BoJ 30 Oct 2026 (28 of 28 research houses expect a hold); BoE 5 Nov 2026 (18 of 21 research houses expect a hike).
Charts: finchiefs.com/data/policy-rates