Central banks are tilting toward tightening, and energy prices from the West Asia conflict are the common thread.
According to published research, India's central bank voted unanimously on October 7 to raise its policy rate 25 bps to 5.50% and shifted to a "calibrated tightening" stance. Governor Sanjay Malhotra said rate cuts are off the table — the next move is a hike or a pause. Earlier in the year the committee had held at 5.25% with a neutral stance while waiting for clarity on the energy shock.
Analysts also flag that Sweden's Riksbank is signalling a slightly faster normalisation path, citing a weaker krona, broad-based growth, and the risk that higher energy prices seep into genuine inflation rather than being looked through. A new decision is due in about two weeks.
The research consensus notes ECB President Lagarde has called the energy shock too large to ignore but favours a measured response. A contrarian thread highlights that two Indian MPC members preferred keeping a neutral stance, arguing domestic strength means India need not match global tightening step for step.