Natural gas views are splitting sharply between Europe and the US, and between near-term tightness and 2027 relief.
On European gas, one camp of researchers argues TTF prices push higher into winter: Persian Gulf LNG flows aren't recovering, QatarEnergy's force majeure now runs to year-end, Norway has unplanned outages, Northwest Europe is turning colder, and EU storage sits just under 75%. A contrarian thread sees TTF easing into Q1, pointing to new US LNG capacity in 2027, a gradual Qatari restart, Romania's Neptune Deep later in the decade, and mild weather trimming demand — though it flags low German storage and a renewed gas shock as the main risk.
On US gas, the published bullish case argues Henry Hub tightens later this decade as LNG exports and power-generation turbines add 8–10 Bcf/d on a ~93 Bcf/d base, and that the gap between ~$3 US gas and ~$27–28 European gas gets arbitraged away by LNG. A more cautious view holds Henry Hub stays range-bound, since prices above $4–5 would pull more supply online.
By the numbers:
• Positioning (CFTC, as of 20 Oct 2026; ESMA, as of 23 Oct 2026): US natural gas (Henry Hub): speculators (managed money) are net short, 9.2% of open interest, the largest net short in a year, crowded short (COT index 0). Dutch TTF gas: speculators (investment funds) are net long, 11.0% of open interest, near the top of the 52-week range (COT index 74).