What research expects
- Bank Hikenote of 30 Oct
- Bank Hikenote of 22 Oct
One vote per research house: its most recent published view on this meeting, from 4 views published between 30 Sep 2026 and 31 Oct 2026. Views about later meetings are not counted.
The debate
Published research leans clearly toward a 25bp hike at the Monetary Policy Update. One note puts the move at 2.0%, and another calls it the first hike of the cycle. The current rate is not stated consistently enough to quote beyond that. Only a handful of notes take a firm view, so the evidence is fairly thin.
The case for a hike rests on officials' signals. One note says Governor Erik Thedeen cited strong reasons to tighten, citing a resilient economy, and that Aino Bunge and Per Jansson broadly agreed. Researchers also point to krona weakness and upside inflation risks. Some say the hawkish stance supports the krona against the euro.
The tension is soft inflation. September CPIF came in at 1.5%, with core at 0.5%, below expectations. Researchers say markets still expect the bank to hold its course, but market pricing for the hike has eased, and one cross-cycle study warns that pricing ahead of first hikes may prove too aggressive.
Jansson, a voting Deputy Governor, said in October that upside inflation risks justified a slightly faster normalisation than the June forecast. That fits the hawkish tilt. One note expects a skip in December and another hike in February, with risks clearly hawkish.
What to watch
- Whether the statement keeps its tightening bias or commits to further increases.
- Any signal on timing, including whether a December pause and a February move are confirmed.
- How the bank explains the hike given core inflation of 0.5%, and whether it leans on the krona and energy prices.
- Whether the board votes unanimously and what the updated rate path implies.
What Riksbank officials have said
- 22 Oct 2026 · SpeechHawkish +1.0Per Jansson
At the September meeting the upside risks to inflation warranted a slightly faster normalisation of the policy rate than in the June forecast; a new policy decision is due in two weeks.
inflationenergyfxfiscal policywagesPresentation Per Jansson: Responsible wage formation pays off Date: 22/10/2026 Speaker: Per Jansson Deputy Governor Place: The National Mediation Office →
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