What research expects
One vote per research house: its most recent published view on this meeting, from 28 views published between 1 Oct 2026 and 26 Oct 2026. Views about later meetings are not counted.
The debate
Research points firmly to a 25bp hike from 3.75% to 4.00% at the 5 November meeting. Markets price it as close to certain, and many notes describe it as an insurance move against an energy shock rather than a response to domestic strength. A minority of older notes still argued for no change or for cuts, but they look stale after the September CPI print.
The case for hiking rests on UK CPI at 3.5% in September, services inflation at 3.7%, core at 2.8%, steadier jobs data and strong growth. Researchers expect headline inflation to pass 4% around the turn of the year. They say the MPC is unlikely to wait for full clarity before acting.
The real disagreement is about the path after November. Many houses expect a second hike in February or early 2027, taking Bank Rate to 4.25%. Others see only one hike. Many argue markets, pricing roughly 100bp of tightening, are too hawkish because second-round effects have not appeared, wages are tame and consumer stress is building. Several expect cuts to resume in late 2027.
Officials lean hawkish but are not unified. Megan Greene and Catherine Mann argue for leaning against second-round risks and following through with rate rises. Andrew Bailey stresses a commitment to the inflation target but warns against unconditional promises on future rates and sees limited evidence so far of energy feeding into wages.
What to watch
- Watch the vote split, since a divided MPC would show how much dissent there is on hiking and on the pace afterwards.
- Watch the forward guidance, because researchers expect cautious wording that could challenge market pricing of around 100bp of hikes.
- Watch the new inflation forecasts, especially whether headline CPI is shown peaking above 4% in early 2027.
- Watch how the MPC reads the 28 October Budget, as researchers see a limited effect on the decision but some risk from the fiscal assessment.
What BoE officials have said
- 20 Oct 2026 · SpeechHawkish +1.0Megan Greene
Continues to believe the MPC should proactively lean against the risk of second-round effects; a risk management approach to monetary policy is even more appropriate.
inflationwageslabour marketenergysecond-round effectsLearning about earnings: Can we rely on labour market slack to mitigate the latest supply shock? − speech by Megan Greene → - 19 Oct 2026 · SpeechNeutral 0.0Bank of England
Central banks must make forward-looking judgements and update them as evidence changes, and should explain clearly how policy would respond under different economic conditions; unconditional promises about future rates are viewed sceptically.
inflationsupply shocksfinancial stabilitysovereign debtmonetary policy frameworkFinancial resilience in an age of repeated shocks → - 1 Oct 2026 · SpeechHawkish +1.5Catherine L. Mann
The current policy stance is not sufficiently tight; the MPC needs to follow through with Bank Rate rises and a sufficiently restrictive, clearly communicated path rather than rely on risk premia.
inflationfinancial conditionsterm premiumenergycommunicationFinancial conditions: what’s priced in? − speech by Catherine L. Mann →
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